• China evaluates its next move in Libya

    [Photo/CFP]

    The new Libyan flag flies next to the green flag of the recently toppled Gaddafi regime at the Libyan embassy in Beijing.

    By Ed Flanagan, NBC News

    BEIJING – On Monday this week, a China Daily photographer snapped a picture of the Libyan embassy in Beijing with both the green Libyan flag of the Gadhafi regime and the rebel’s re-purposed flag of the Kingdom of Libya flying side by side.  The iconic green flag was later lowered, with an embassy employee telling Chinese media that “the Gadhafi regime was finished.”

    The fall of his reign is a dramatic turn of events for the Chinese government which, in public at least, has been unabashedly against any foreign interference in Libya’s domestic affairs.

    Since the start of foreign intervention in Libya, China has steadfastly stuck to its foreign policy of general non-intervention, starting with its abstention on the vote for United Nations Resolution 1973, which authorized a no-fly zone and “all necessary measures” against forces loyal to Gadhafi.

    Later, China vigorously condemned the NATO air strikes, which played a critical role in denying Gadhafi’s forces full use of the armor and heavy weapons that effectively slowed rebel advances early on in the campaign.

    Reuters

    Colonel Gaddafi

    Back in China, coverage of the war in state media often played up downsides of the conflict – anarchy, indiscriminate shootings, and civilian casualties – while ignoring the popular support that the rebels enjoyed amongst large swathes of the population.

    Quite bravely, Al Jazeera’s Arabic correspondent in China, Ezzat Shahrour eloquently took the Chinese media to task for its coverage, writing at the time, “I just don’t see what the point is of [Chinese] media spending so much money to prepare their journalists to go to a dangerous place like Libya when all these reporters do is simultaneous interpretation in China of Gadhafi’s own television station.” 

    While Shahrour wrote of Chinese language media coverage, China’s foreign policy slant was also noticeably obvious in the English language stream: state-run news agency Xinhua elected to title its special coverage of the Libyan war, “Foreign Military Intervention in Libya.”

    In this light, it would be easy to conclude that China may find itself on the outside looking in at the vast reconstruction effort – and contracts – that many experts anticipate will follow with the inevitable formation of a new government.

    Learning to play both sides

    However, despite the strong pro-regime stance Beijing has publicly taken since the start of hostilities, Chinese officials have gone out of their way to also maintain relations with the rebels throughout the war--in a sign perhaps of Beijing’s growing clout abroad and of an evolving foreign policy.

    This past June, my colleague Eric Baculinao, wrote about a very public meeting that occurred between Mahmoud Jibril, the chairman of the executive board of the Libyan National Transition Council (NTC), and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi.  

    That meeting was preceded earlier that month by a visit from Col. Gadhafi’s foreign minister, making China--as Eric wrote at the time, “The only great power so far that both warring parties in the nation's civil war have been willing to visit… [Giving] China a potentially central role in brokering any possible political negotiation.”  

    Soon after, though, Chinese diplomats met with NTC officials several times, even dispatching a senior diplomat to Benghazi in July who told rebel officials that they had become an “important dialogue partner” on the Libya question. In return, the NTC pledged to protect Chinese citizens and business interests in rebel-held territories.

    Alexandre Meneghini - AP

    Libyans celebrate the capture of Tripoli in rebel-held Benghazi (Aug. 22, 2011)

    It was perhaps with those business interests in mind that China this week upped the ante again in their bid to boost relations with the rebels. Today a slew of announcements were issued from Beijing on Libya, starting with the Chinese Foreign Minister urging that the U.N. step in to guide future efforts in Libya and announcing that Beijing was in contact with the NTC--a strong signal that they now view the Gadhafi regime finished.

    Also today, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce conveyed China’s hopes for Libya, specifically the rekindling of over 50 capital projects it has invested in throughout the war-torn nation.

    “We hope that Libya will restore stability as soon as possible, and we are willing to play an active role in Libya's reconstruction along with the international community," said Shen Danyang.

    With more than 35,000 Chinese citizens at one time working in Libya before the conflict began, China is said to have invested over $18.8 billion in projects ranging from engineering to construction projects to oil exploration.

    In particular, the oil question will likely draw closer global scrutiny. As the world's second-biggest oil consumer, China imported roughly 150,000 barrels of crude oil from Libya last year through its state-owned oil company, Sinopec Corp.

    As the second-largest oil consumer in the world, any cut in its supply – as implied by Abdeljalil Mayouf, an information manager at Libyan rebel-run oil firm, AGOCO, as punishment for China’s lack of support for the rebellion – would not be catastrophic to Chinese interests, but would still be a noticeable hit to supply.

    For his part, Yin Gang, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing told Reuters this week that he doubted that rebel leaders would terminate China’s oil contracts, saying, “This was one individual's opinion. I can say in four words: They would not dare; they would not dare change any contracts."

    Whether the NTC will make China take a bath financially for not pledging support to the rebels earlier in the conflict remains to be seen. However, the speed with which Beijing shifted its previously unshakable faith in a non-interventionist policy is perhaps the clearest example we’ve seen yet that the country’s economic rise at home has forced it to revaluate its core principles abroad.

    With surging crises throughout the Middle East and North Africa, it will be intriguing to see how China fares as it continues to try to walk the fine line between protecting its business interests and preserving its neutralist foreign policy elsewhere.  

  • China may play crucial negotiator role in Libya

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING - Much has been said of the Obama administration's vow to pursue "smart power" diplomacy in global affairs, but when it comes to the Libyan crisis, China appears to be showing the way on how to exert influence while protecting its own interests at minimal cost.

    A top leader of Libya's opposition forces has begun a two-day trip to Beijing following a visit by Libya's foreign minister, making China the only great power so far that both warring parties in the nation's civil war have been willing to visit. This gives China a potentially central role in brokering any possible political negotiation. And with most observers and scholars - including those in China -predicting that the beleaguered Gadhafi regime may not last much longer, China's hosting of Mahmoud Jibril, the diplomatic chief of Libya's National Transitional Council, may be seen as part of China's positioning in a post-Gadhafi Libya. Iraq and Afghanistan show that China is adept at reaping benefits with minimum sacrifices, as msnbc.com reported with regards to one large copper mine in eastern Afghanistan.  

    But a top Chinese expert has dismissed as baseless any suspicion of Chinese ulterior motives in a post-Gadhafi Libya. In an interview with NBC News, the expert He Wenping has acknowledged that China has adopted "a more assertive approach ... to promote diplomatic dialogue" between the warring parties in Libya. "We hope to contribute to conflict resolution. If we can talk to both sides, why not? Building a bridge between the two sides is a constructive thing," said Dr. He, who is the top African Studies specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank. She described three potential areas of interest during Jibril's talks with Chinese officials, namely "how to guarantee the safety of Chinese investments, how to push for ceasefire and political solution, and how China can assist with the humanitarian crisis." 

    Oil interests?
    "Is there any message they want to us to convey to the Gadhafi regime, can China serve as a bridge for bringing the two together so they can find a solution to the impasse?" she asked. She denied that China has any vested interests in Libya's oil industry, saying that most of China's investments and workers were in construction, infrastructure and transport and "actually, most of Libya's oil industry has been taken away by Western oil companies."

    "I don't agree with reports that in the case of Afghanistan or Iraq, China did not sacrifice any single soldier's life but ended up as the winner in economic deals," she said.  "In both countries, the decisions taken by the local government were based on the competitive advantages of companies and the bidding was an open process." 

    For some Chinese foreign policy scholars, the Libyan crisis and China's response mark a departure from China's traditional approach of laying low. "In China，there's a debate between those who want China to continue lying low in world affairs, and those who want China to assume a greater, more assertive role in the world and I belong to the latter school," international affairs expert Yan Xuetong told NBC News. In his recently published book Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Professor Yan, dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, argued that China can play a greater political role in the world based on moral norms, not on sheer military or economic power.  Citing China's support for sanctions against the Gadhafi regime and decisions to mobilize warships and military aircraft in a high-profile rescue operations that improved China's international image, Yan said that "China's policy on Libya is clearly a break from the principle of keeping a low profile."

    Others take a different standpoint.

    "I don't think I belong to any of the two schools. There may be schools in between, or maybe I belong to the case-by-case school," said Dr. He Wenping. "Whether it is appropriate for China to take action or remain quiet really depends on the case at hand. If it involves China's important interests or China has a lot of leverage, then China can take responsible action, but in other cases it may not be good for China's image to become too assertive," she said. In Libya and the Middle East, there doesn't seem to be a debate on the important Chinese stakes involved: Even if Libya only supplies 3 percent of China's imported oil, China has some US$18.8 billion contracted projects in Libya and nearly half of China's oil imports come from North Africa and the Middle East. 

    LisAurel Winfree contributed research to this report.

  • China organizes hasty retreat from Libya

    Dmitry Solovyov / NBC News

    A crowd of Chinese evacuees from Libya line up at the Malta International Airport to fly back to China Thursday.

    By Martin Fletcher, NBC News Correspondent

    VALLETTA, Malta – How things have changed. When the 2004 tsunami hit the Indian Ocean, America sent the Seventh Fleet of the U.S. Navy to help evacuees. China sent a cargo ship.

    Now to evacuate American workers from the crisis in Libya, America sent a chartered ferry too small to ride the rough seas of the Mediterranean.

    China chartered a giant ocean cruise ship, 20 civilian aircraft, four military aircraft and moved 35,860 of its citizens out of danger in Libya as of Wednesday, within a week of starting the process, according to the Chinese foreign minister.

    I’m thinking of the comparison as I wait for my plane in Malta, one of the evacuation hubs. Lined up in complete silence and total order are hundreds of Chinese workers wearing red caps, obeying ladies holding up red and yellow Chinese flags like any tour group at the Vatican. They follow instructions, wait in long lines, and shuffle forward when told. On command, a long single file strides through the concourse like an unstoppable column of ants. I am reminded of the 1927 German movie Metropolis.

    What a difference. Not one is wearing headphones or playing with a telephone or digital device. They are all slim and fit, no sign of impending obesity. Their bags are bound with cellophane. Some are still in their orange work suits and carrying orange hardhats. They were working in Libya’s oil, rail, construction and telecommunications industries.

    Dmitry Solovyov / NBC News

    Chinese evacuees from Libya line up at the Malta International Airport Thursday.

    China’s government chartered a fleet of planes to carry them to Shanghai. Quietly, effectively, without fuss, China is evacuating all its workers to safety. It is the silent contract between state and worker: You work abroad, we’ll look after you.

    China’s People’s Daily boasted that it was the “largest and most complicated overseas evacuation ever conducted by the Chinese government.” And China’s foreign minister gave credit for the speedy and efficient evacuation to “China's peaceful foreign policy, which makes China a popular country in the community of nations.”

    There are an estimated 50,000 Chinese workers in Nigeria, 35,000 in Sudan, 40,000 in Zambia, 30,000 in Angola, 20,000 in Algeria and thousands more dotted around the African continent. They are the face of Chinese industry, investment, diplomacy and eventually, power.

    But what strikes me is the efficiency and order and calm. Nobody was arguing with the airline staff, objecting to orders, struggling with too many bags and bulky packages. Rather just a line of calm, single men with small cases, waiting patiently to be told what to do and where to go.

    It occurred to me, is this the future?

    China has invested heavily in Africa while the West turned elsewhere, and Chinese companies are spreading rapidly and silently through Latin America, too. Their insatiable appetite for coal, copper, bauxite, oil, iron ore and almost every other mineral is leading them on an economic conquest like no other. Their workers lead the rush, and their government spreads its wings to protect them, wherever they are.

    As 200 men lined up in a silent single file that snaked through duty-free, with nobody eyeing all the luxuries on display, waiting for a man with a Chinese flag to raise his arm and tell them to move, I didn’t know whether to be filled with admiration or trepidation.

    I did think, we better keep them on our side.