By Eric Baculinao on Behind The Wall

  • Blind dissident’s case a ‘hot potato’ for US-China relations

    U.S. relations with China are being put to the test over the fate of Chen Guangcheng, a blind Chinese dissident who escaped from house arrest in China and is believed to be in the U.S. embassy or another safe site. NBC's Ian Williams reports.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – As China prepares to welcome U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday for an annual meeting on important bilateral issues, the focus of her visit has turned to the unresolved plight of Chinese human rights activist Chen Guangcheng, now under U.S. diplomatic protection. How will the latest controversy impact China-U.S. ties that are already beset by old and new problems?

    Last week, Chen staged a daring escape from house arrest. He traveled 300 miles with the aid of supporters and has reportedly entered the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for protection.

    His dramatic feat, despite blindness and 24-hour surveillance by Chinese security guards, has added to embarrassment in Beijing – which was already grappling with the leadership scandal triggered by a former Chinese police chief who tried to seek asylum at a U.S. consulate. In both cases, the United States was sought out as a source of protection.

    The case of Cheng, a human rights campaigner who spent four years in prison and the last 19 months under house arrest, is like “a hot potato that the two governments will have to deal with,” according to Professor Jin Canrong, who teaches international relations at the People’s University of China.


    One of many issues
    “There are some people in China who believe that there is some kind of American conspiracy to take advantage of China’s domestic problems to embarrass China, but these people are rather marginalized,”  said Jin, who specializes on China-U.S. relations.

    “The mainstream thinking is that certain problems, like the Chen Guangcheng case, can be treated as separate issues, even if they are embarrassing for China in some ways. China’s leaders have learned to accept that China is a big country with so many problems and that some kind of embarrassment is inevitable. [And that] there is no conspiracy behind these issues,” Jin added.

    The case of Cheng has only signaled that China and the U.S. are entering a “very difficult period,” he added.

    Blind Chinese activist Chen Guangcheng escapes from house arrest

    “We are facing a trust deficit. Old issues will remain like Taiwan, Tibet and others, but there will be more and more new issues,” he said. He noted greater regional leadership competition between China and U.S., the controversy over China’s military modernization, trade and economic conflicts, and what he called “the greater diversification of Chinese society” that is reshaping China’s domestic politics.

    “From a diplomatic perspective, it is better to resolve the Chen Guangcheng case, this headache issue, as soon as possible,” he said.

    ‘Did not violate Chinese laws’
    Surprisingly, a prominent human rights campaigner and a supporter of Chen seemed to echo a similar moderate sentiment.

    “I hope that Mrs. Hillary Clinton will not regard the case as a diplomatic crisis,” said Hu Jia, who met Chen after his escape.

    Hu, a leading activist who spent more than three years in prison on charges of state security violations, was detained for 24 hours for police investigation after he met Chen. “He hugged me warmly, lifting my feet off the ground,” Hu said of his meeting with Chen.

    China censors 'Shawshank' as Clinton heads to Beijing amid dissident drama

    In a transcript of a telephone interview with ITV News that was shared with NBC News, Hu Jia made a startling revelation that government authorities hold a benign view of Chen’s escape, too. According to Hu, police investigators said that Chen’s escape and the actions of those who aided him to find U.S. diplomatic protection “did not violate Chinese laws.”

    “Therefore, the U.S. government should feel confident about this issue… I want to say to Mrs. Hillary Clinton that she should regard this case as an opportunity, not some kind of trouble,” said Hu.

    He said the U.S. should see it as a chance for the U.S. government to urge China to respect human rights and to “use the resolution of the Chen Guangcheng case to boost the confidence of the international community” in China.

    Providing more details of his meeting with Chen, Hu said that Chen has “grown more silver hair, his hands were shivering, and there were bruises and injuries caused by climbing over the wall.”

    Who is Fu? Chinese exile is 'God's double agent'

    Both sides looking for a resolution
    Hu said that after Chen entered the U.S. Embassy, China’s Foreign Ministry immediately contacted the U.S. Embassy for “negotiation.” So far, “no concrete results,” he said.

    According to one well-informed source with close ties to China's dissident community, there is "lots of pressures" to resolve the case. 

    "Chen is demanding protection for himself and his family and respect for his rights, but if that cannot be granted, then he may have no choice but to travel abroad for medical treatment," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

    However, despite various reports that both China and the United States are trying to hammer out a deal to resolve the case ahead of Clinton's visit, a government source said that no breakthrough has been achieved. 

    "No news yet," according to the source who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the case.

    More on Chen: Video reveals blind Chinese activist's plight

     

  • Ai Weiwei turns camera on himself, citing 'global' problem

    Peter Parks / AFP - Getty Images

    Chinese artist and dissident Ai Weiwei is seen in the courtyard of his home in Beijing in this file picture from November 2010.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – A day after installing home cameras to parody the Chinese police's 24-hour surveillance of himself, Ai Weiwei says he has not received any adverse reaction so far from authorities.
     
    "Nobody cares I guess, or maybe they have no idea yet," Ai told NBC News in a phone interview. "Normally they don't respond so fast."

    The slow response might also be attributed to the fact that China was observing the last day of a three-day holiday in observance of the Tomb Sweeping Festival Wednesday.
     
    To mark the one-year anniversary of his detention at Beijing’s international airport amid a government crackdown on dissent, Ai installed home cameras positioned over his computer, bed and courtyard that stream a 24-hour video at weiweicam.com. At one point, he was shown sleeping like a log.

    Chinese artist Ai Weiwei sets up live webcams at his home

    The site appeared be down – or perhaps blocked – when we tried it Wednesday.

    David Gray / Reuters

    A Chinese lantern hangs underneath a security camera afixed to a light pole that looks into the studio of dissident Chinese artist Ai Weiwei in Beijing on January 17, 2012.

    After he was picked up by authorities a year ago, Ai was detained and kept in isolation for 81 days on alleged tax evasion charges. Since his release in June, he’s been under house arrest which involves constant surveillance by Chinese authorities.
     
    "They have 15 cameras around my house, and now I have four of them in my bedroom and around my home. This is to mark the day one year ago when they detained me," Ai said.
     
    "But this is also a gift," he added. "This is a chance for people who miss me or who feel sad about my disappearance to see me anytime with the click of a computer. It's a kind of gift for them."
     
    There is no mistaking Ai's political message. Referring to the authorities, he said this is also a way to "make them feel vulnerable about their invasion of other people's private space which is now a practice in many states, not just in China, as the technology of surveillance becomes very common."
     
    "The issue of invading other people's privacy is a global issue, it exists in many countries in varying degrees, but I have a very strong experience with this issue in the past year and this is all a reflection of that," he explained.
     
    Asked whether he is concerned about any adverse reaction from the authorities, Ai replied, “I am not really concerned about any reaction, this may not make them happy, but it's OK," he said.
     
    "I am an artist, my work and thinking are all my artistic expression, which also reflects the time and place I am living in," he said.
     
    Ai is still facing a $2.4 million tax case, and his one-year probation is expected to end on June 22.  Asked what his plans are when he recovers his freedom to travel, Ai sounded cautious. "I don't have much illusion," he said.
     
    Referring to teaching offers abroad, he said, "As a citizen of the universe, I can work in different places, but if I can travel anywhere, I will still have to start from here. But I don't have much expectation because of the reality."
     

  • A farmer seeks justice as China's parliament opens in Beijing

    Alexander F. Yuan / AP

    Military delegates arrive for the opening session of the annual National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on Monday.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – With massive security in Beijing during the annual National People’s Congress, it would seem like a risky time to protest in China’s capital, but for Guan Youming, it’s the best time.

    Nearly 3,000 members of the ruling Communist Party gathered in the Great Hall of the People on Monday for the start of the annual meeting amid tight security throughout the city. Premier Wen Jiabao delivered his equivalent of a state-of-the-union speech to the group, setting out the government’s strategy for the coming year.

    In addition to economic and military policy, a prominent goal he mentioned was the need to manage major sources of domestic discontent by protecting farmers’ rights and improving rural governance.

    Farmers’ rights to their land “must not be violated,” Wen told the politicians, just a day after unprecedented democratic elections in the southern Chinese village of Wukan, which has become a symbol of successful revolt against land grabs and corruption.

    You would think that Wen’s words would be music to the ears of Guan, a farmer from central China who made light of his 500-mile journey to brave tight security in Beijing and expose what he claims is illegal confiscation of his land by village authorities.

    But Guan was not impressed. “I don’t necessarily believe in what the leaders says, I want to see results,” he told NBC News as he recounted his years of work to try and seek justice for his claim.

    Andy Wong / AP

    A Chinese police officer drags away a protesting woman after a flag raising ceremony on Tiananmen Square across from where the National People's Congress is held, in Beijing, China on Monday. The cause of the incident was not known but authorities have tighten security of the area around the Great Hall of the People where the annual legislature meetings are held this week.

    Season of discontent
    With China’s booming real estate industry, residential and land prices have skyrocketed and land disputes have become a major cause of mass protests. According to a report by Tsinghua University Professor Sun Liping last year, the number of protests, riots and strikes have doubled over the last five years to almost 500 a day.

    And land grabs cause more than 65 percent of rural “mass incidents,” or collective protest actions, according to Yu Jianrong, a leading expert on rural conflicts at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    Reports have estimated that nearly 50 million Chinese farmers have lost their homes during the past 30 years of industrial and urban growth; and that some 60 million more could be further uprooted with accelerated urbanization in the next few years.

    Wen promised a better deal for farmers this year, with measures to improve rural incomes and protect farmers’ rights as a “top priority.”

    “Farmers’ rights to the land they contract to work on, to the land on which their houses sit, and to proceeds s from collective undertakings are property rights conferred by law, and these rights must not be violated by anyone,” declared Wen during his two-
    hour address.

    He vowed “better supervision” and “regulation concerning compensation” for farmers in the course of land transfers and expropriations, in a clear signal of a government drive to address the crux of rising rural discontent.

    ‘Airing dirty laundry in public’
     “From my experience,” Guan said, “the sweeter the words, the more false they are.”

    Guan hails from the farming village of Daqiao in Hubei province, where he said local leaders have “illegally” expropriated farmland to build government offices, commercial apartments and roads. Thousands of villagers have been affected, and many have not been adequately compensated, according to Guan, who also said that five fellow villagers have bravely joined him in Beijing to press for their case.

    The last straw for Guan was when his quarter acre of farmland – what he said was his “only source of food” – was taken away.  He said he sought the help of various government departments but hasn’t gotten any response.

    Asked why he chose this time of tight security in Beijing during the parliament session to make his case – when protesters and petitioners from rural provinces are routinely rounded up or forcibly returned to their villages. Guan said it was a deliberate decision to “exert pressure on leaders.”

    “We are seeking out the Western and Taiwan media to explain our plight,” he said.

    “Only by doing so can we expect the leaders concerned to pay attention because they are scared of airing our dirty laundry in public,” he explained.

    In order to verify Guan’s claims, NBC News reached out to Wu Mingjing, party leader of Wuxie City which oversees Guan’s village.

    “No, it’s impossible to for his land to be confiscated,” said Wu. “We have laws and regulations concerning land expropriation and compensation,” he explained, adding that he was not very clear about the details of Guan’s case.

    With Guan listening to the telephone conversation, Wu suggested that the Daqiao villagers bring their case to the attention of a local party secretary, with the assurance that “proper action” will be taken.

    Guan was not so sure – perhaps Wen’s promises would trickle down after all.

    Researcher Isabella Zhong contributed to this report 

  • China and Merkel do diplomatic Euro debt dance

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – As Europe grapples with its debt crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in China for her fifth visit in six years, signifying China's ever growing importance and a new opportunity for Chinese diplomacy.

    As the leader of the strongest economy in the European Union, the chancellor has called for more "Europe," a stronger union as an answer to the Eurozone crisis. And China with its massive $3.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves is seen as a potential source of critical support for any European bailout program.
     
    China's challenge is how to contribute to Europe's rescue while resisting any attempt to extract political favors or counter-balance the United States, some observers say.  There are also concerns about whether Merkel, in her dealings with the Chinese, can pursue European diplomacy as distinct from a purely German diplomacy. 

    Pushing for China's constructive role 
    In her speech to a top government think-tank, the German chancellor set the tone of her three-day visit by calling on China to use its influence to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambition, clearly pushing China to support the recent initiatives for sanctions and to play a more constructive role. 

    "I will advocate, that if Europe, for example, imposes sanctions (on Iran), that China still uses the influence it has to tell Iran that we do not need, and cannot allow, another power with nuclear weapons," she told the assembly at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    Addressing Chinese concern about Europe's debt crisis, she explained her recent call for greater budget discipline. "I say if we are not ready to step by step impose this budget control, and the fiscal pact is an important step here, Europe will not succeed in the long term," she said, stressing the need for greater European "cohesion.”

    The German leader has raised a wide range of issues with the Chinese side, including human rights, intellectual property protection, and improved market access. 

    Greater Chinese contribution? 
    After meeting with Merkel, China's Premier Wen Jiabao declared China's willingness to consider greater contribution to a European bailout plan.

    "China is also considering increasing its participation in the solution of the European debt crisis through the channels of the EFSF and ESM," Wen said, referring to the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism. 

    The ESM is a 500-billion-euro ($650 billion) permanent bailout fund that is due to become operational in July. The EFSF is a temporary fund to help Ireland, Portugal and Greece.

    While Wen did not make specific commitments, the positive language significantly raised the prospect of China eventually contributing to a bailout plan.

    According to most estimates, China has about a quarter of its foreign exchange reserves in euro assets. Beijing has expressed its support for a stable euro, but has been reluctant to make specific promises about rescue contributions due partly to domestic public opinion. 

    Learning from Germany? 
    "As a Chinese saying goes, one does not visit the temple for nothing," commented Ouyang Shi in a China Daily opinion piece "Friendship is a two-day street." 

    Referring to the Merkel visit, the commentary cited China's two long-standing demands: recognizing China's market economy status which will improve China's trading position and lifting the arms embargo that was imposed in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, which he wrote "smacks of Cold War mentality.”

    "Some in China suggest that we link these problems with continued Chinese support to Europe. But this is not the mainstream opinion, and few expect these problems to be solved quickly," the commentary added.

    These demands echo earlier government positions, but China seems to have since realized that attaching precondition to Europe assistance could backfire and encounter resistance from the United States and its allies.

    Instead of demanding strategic benefits, Beijing's leaders can view the European crisis as an excellent opening for China to play a constructive role, while neutralizing any international fear about China's rising clout, according to David Gosset, a top expert on Chinese-European relations based in Shanghai.

    "The role of China as a catalyst for European integration should not be seen as a way to contain the U.S., but as a long-term strategic action to create the conditions for equilibrium in a multipolar and globalized world system," he declared in an Asia Times commentary. 

    And there are examples known to the Chinese themselves on how the fear of China can be blunted, noted Jonathan Holslag, a research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

    "Indeed, one senior official told me that China should position itself like Germany has in Europe, letting its clout be neutralized by an Asian regional organization," he wrote on the diplomat.com web site. 

    German or European diplomacy? 
    While China is important, Merkel's diplomacy towards China and Asia is "more German than European," according to a statement by the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

    In an interview with NBC News, Dr. Francois Godement, the Council's Senior Fellow and Director for Strategy of Asian Center, criticized the weaknesses of European diplomacy.

    While noting that Merkel's government has all around Asia policy, it "somehow misses explicit support for EU wide negotiations – even if she does not contradict the EU. So this looks like a German policy," he said.

    "Sarkozy and France currently have the least leverage on policy towards China. That makes France a more direct supporter of EU level negotiations," Godement added.

    "The real loser in this situation is the EU," he said, adding that "the Chinese feel they have more leverage, and get better deals, with the member states.”

    "This situation already existed on human rights issues, there is a danger it's also there on trade and investment issues," he warned.

  • Buffett serenades Chinese in New Year’s tribute

    China celebrated its new year with a little help from American billionaire Warren Buffett. Buffett appeared on Chinese television playing a ukulele, singing "I've Been Working on the Railroad."

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – American billionaire Warren Buffett has staged yet another surprise performance, this time winning the hearts and minds of millions of Chinese with an American folk song. He sang and played ukulele for a hugely watched television program to celebrate the Year of the Dragon Monday.
     
    "We know of Mr. Buffett's investing genius, but we did not know that he can sing as well," remarked one smiling local television host as she introduced the 45-second video clip of the 81-year-old philanthropist and chairman of investment giant Berkshire Hathaway. The video was posted on the web site of China's state-run television CCTV, which broadcasts a glitzy TV extravaganza annually on the eve of the Chinese New Year.

    “I am Warren Buffett, and I'd like to wish all the people of China a Happy New Year in this Year of the Dragon. Your country has accomplished amazing things, and the best is yet to come," Buffett said before crooning the American classic “I've Been Working On The Railroad."
     
    At the end, he raised his hand and said "Xiexie,” the Chinese word for “thank you.”

    His greeting got a favorable response from many Chinese viewers online.
     
    “Grandpa Buffett deserves respect, not because he is good at making money, but because of his selfless contributions and his charitable and kind-hearted activities,” said one commentator on Youku.com, a popular video site.
     
    "A role model for all the rich people," remarked another.
     
    "Grandpa Buffett is so cute, he is not just a god of wealth, but a sage who understands human nature and the way the world works," added another.
     
    "We invited Warren Buffett to participate in the gala this year not because of the great business success he has achieved, but mainly because of his famous contribution to the public welfare," television producer Luo Yan told local media.
    Buffett cuts a legendary figure in China. Chinese tycoons have paid up to $2 million dollars for the privilege of dining with the American financial guru in a charity auction. 

    Guo Guanchang, one of China's richest entrepreneurs and founder of Fosun, China's biggest private investment conglomerate, often extols Buffett's value investment philosophy. 
     
    Of course, Buffett is also a major investor in China. His company owns 10 percent of the Chinese battery and car maker BYD, with a quarter of a billion dollar investment that has doubled in value. He also invested about half a billion dollars in PetroChina, a gas and oil giant, that yielded over $3 billion in profits when he cashed out after five years.
     
    NBC News' Gu Bo contributed to this report.
     

  • Year of the Dragon woes for China-U.S. ties?

    Peter Parks / AFP - Getty Images

    A collection of a new Chinese postage stamp depicting a Chinese dragon are seen at a stamp fair in Shanghai on Jan. 6. The new stamp has raised concerns that the post office has put a too hard an image on China as Beijing seeks to promote the nation's soft power.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – Turns out the Year of the Dragon may be inauspicious for China-U.S. relations.

    Beijing has just released a New Year’s commemorative stamp featuring a ferocious-looking dragon last week, stirring up talk that China was sending an intimidating message to the world. Meantime, the United States has proclaimed a new, more robust, military strategy in Asia. 

    Are the two countries headed for a dangerous confrontation? Is the U.S. beginning to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy toward China?  What is China’s rightful place on the world stage?

    As Beijing prepares for events celebrating the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s landmark trip to China in 1972 that opened up official diplomacy between the two countries, analysts say the superpowers are entering a new chapter in their uneasy relationship.

    Questions about growing competition between the two super-powers are unnerving officials, as well as energizing opinion-makers, and bringing to the fore pessimistic theories about a possible great-power conflict.

    ‘Don't blame the mirror designer’
    The “fiery debate” sparked by the release of the official Year of the Dragon stamp was emblematic of China’s self-image issues as it  continues to grow as a world power. 

    The image shows the fang-baring face of the mythical ancestor of the Chinese, the most revered of the 12 animals in the Chinese Zodiac. Critics say the image sends a menacing message at a time of growing international unease over China’s rise.

     “When I saw the design of the dragon stamp in a newspaper, I was almost scared to death,” said Zhang Yihe, a noted writer, said on her micro blog on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like service.

     “It’s truly intimidating and powerful,” echoed another post. The “fierce stare and wide-open mouth” conveys an image that is “frightening and aggressive,” said another commentator. 

    The stamp’s graphic artist Chen Shaohua defended his work, however, writing in his blog that the image is reflective of China’s newly -found “national confidence” as a major world power.

    While past dragon stamps showed the creature in more gracious, gentler poses in keeping with the early years of China’s opening up to the word, he said that this year’s image of a “powerful, intimidating, fierce and confident dragon” befits China’s “prestige and self-confidence.”

    Yue Luping, another micro-blogger, likened the dragon stamp to a mirror. “We have destroyed the old mirror of ourselves as poor old dragon.  After a hundred years, we see our image as powerful, menacing… Don’t blame the mirror designer.  You may be scared of what you see in the new mirror, but don’t forget, what you see is our very own image,” he wrote.

    “A hundred years ago,” wrote Yue Luping, a respected art critic and blogger, “revolution shattered the mirror of our collective consciousness as Chinese. After a hundred years, Chen Shaohua's Year of the Dragon stamp has let us view our image once again: powerful, menacing, and not even 'auspicious looking' anymore; we can't reproach the mirror designer, it's a new mirror, you may be scared by what you see in the mirror but don't forget, that is our own image today.”

    Stringer/China / Reuters

    Workers decorate a dragon-shaped sculpture in preparation for a dragon dance which will involve more than 200 people during the upcoming Chinese New Year in Wenzhou, Zhejiang province on Jan. 9.

    America’s shifting strategy
    However, more baffling for the Chinese as they grapple with their global standing is the new defense strategy that U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled recently. It features a leaner military, but one with a greater focus on the Asia-Pacific and China’s growing power.

    “The United States is deploying forces around the Asia-Pacific in advance in order to contain China’s rise,” warned Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, writing on the official newspaper of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the strongest Chinese reaction so far to America’s new strategy.

    “Who can believe that you are not aiming this at China, that this is not the return of a Cold War mentality?” he asked on the Chinese-language Liberation Daily.

    “Obama said the country will ‘continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems,’ it would do better to do away with its entire Cold War mentality,” declared the state-run China Daily. The newspaper added that both countries will lose if the U.S. regards the region “as a wrestling ring in which to contain emerging powers like China.”

    China’s official response has been more subdued, with the foreign ministry merely defending China’s policy as “defensive” and calling U.S. accusations as “groundless and untrustworthy."

    But in a recent briefing with a select group of Western and Chinese media that included NBC News, China’s chief diplomat in charge of U.S. relations shared his misgivings about the U.S. moves. 

    “Peace and prosperity are still what many countries want, not military alliances,” said Cui Tiankai, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister.

    “I find it hard to understand why the U.S., which has the strongest military in the world, feels insecure about other countries,” said Cui. “I suggest the U.S. should do more to make other countries feel less worried about the U.S., so that other countries will feel safe and the U.S. will feel safe as well,” he added.

    Slideshow: The dance of two giants

    AFP - Getty Images

    A click-through history of modern relations between the United States and China.

    Launch slideshow

    Doctrine of “offensive realism”
    But to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, America’s strategic shift and the intensifying security competition in Asia all seem inevitable. 

    Mearsheimer, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is an international relations theorist who authored the pioneering book, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” which propounds the theory of “offensive realism." The doctrine regards all great powers as perpetually on the offensive, constantly seeking security by maximizing power. He broadly anticipated America’s response to China’s growing challenge. 

    In an interview with NBC News, Mearsheimer shared his views on the growing power play in Asia. 

    “The Obama administration is definitely worried about China’s growing power as well as its aggressive rhetoric over the past two years, and that is why it is beginning to build a balancing coalition to contain China,” he said.

    “My realist theory tells me that China will try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region as it grows more powerful and that the United States and China’s neighbors will try to contain Chinese power. It is too soon to say for sure whether my theory will be proved correct, but recent developments suggest that my theory will have a lot to say about Asia’s future,” he added.

    Reflecting on the upcoming 40-year anniversary of Nixon’s landmark visit to China in 1972 that changed U.S.-China, Mearsheimer pointed out that U.S-China relations are based on realpolitik.

    “Relations between the United States and China are largely determined by the balance of power in Asia, not by principles or ideals,” he said. “Beijing and Washington were driven together 40 years ago because they faced a common threat – the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union is now gone and the Asian balance of power has changed drastically.”

    For Mearsheimer, China’s new 21st century role in the world, has changed the power dynamic.

    “Today, China is the most powerful state in the region and if it continues its rapid growth over the next 30 years, it will be by far the most powerful country in Asia.  I believe that it will try to dominate the region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere.  However, Washington will go to great lengths to prevent that outcome, which means that China and America are destined to become rivals if China continues its rise,” he observed.

    “There is little that Chinese or American leaders can do to avoid strategic competition, which carries with it the real possibility of armed conflict between those two great powers,” he warned.

    Agreement and disagreement
    “I totally agree with Professor John Mearsheimer,” said Dr. Yan Xuetong, China’s top international security expert and dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations at Tsinghua University.  “As the gap of comprehensive power between the U.S. and China narrows, the tension between the two will intensify and there will be more conflict rather than less,” he told NBC News. 

    “But I disagree that this competition will get out of control and escalate into war,” he said. “Both sides have nuclear weapons which will deter them from going to war. I have great confidence in nuclear weapons, which have the important political function of preventing war between China and the United States.”

    Professor Yan considers the recent developments as validation of his argument against the danger of “superficial friendship” between America and China. “I think that the ‘superficial friendship’ will turn into ‘superficial enmity’ this year,” he predicted.

    “We are not partners but we need to carefully manage the competition to prevent it from escalating into a major confrontation,” he said.

    “If both sides fail to admit the competitive relationship and instead consider it as a partnership, then that, for me, will be very dangerous,” he warned.

    Researcher Ting Zhao contributed to this report.

  • Police question wife of Chinese activist

    The wife of Ai Weiwei was questioned by Chinese police for several hours Tuesday. She described what happened to NBC News.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – The wife of Ai Weiwei was questioned by Chinese police for several hours Tuesday in what appears to be a growing campaign against the outspoken artist and activist.

    Ai Weiwei dismissed his wife’s police interrogation as a “pressure” tactic. “They are trying to put pressure on me,” Ai told NBC News in a phone interview after his wife was released.

    But Ai’s long-running battle with authorities over tax evasion allegations – which critics say were meant to silence the politically outspoken artist—took a dangerous new turn when his wife was taken away by the police for questioning as a “criminal suspect.”

    “It’s doesn’t make sense,” Ai said. “They can come to me directly.” He said his wife, Lu Qing, is “not involved” in politics.

    Criminal case?
    Lu, the legal owner of the cultural company that manages Ai’s art projects, was suddenly taken away Tuesday by four policemen, one of them holding a video camera, and subjected to more than three hours of interrogation.

    Initially refusing to go, she was brusquely told she had no choice.  “They were quite rough, they told me [I had no choice] while showing some document saying that I was a ‘criminal suspect,’’’ Lu said as she recounted the story to NBC News in a telephone interview. Her request for a lawyer was refused.

    When she asked what crimes she had allegedly committed, they responded, “We cannot tell you now.”

    “During the interrogation, I was seated on a chair meant for criminal suspects; they were very impolite,” she said, adding that except for a call from her husband, she was not allowed to contact her lawyer and other friends during the whole proceeding.

    The interrogation itself dealt with many issues concerning the company’s operations that she said had already been touched upon in previous investigations.

    She said she was asked about her income, but said that she firmly told the police, “No, you have no right to ask that.”

    Taiwan connection
    As a “criminal suspect,” she was told that she can be summoned again anytime and should not travel or leave Beijing.

    Lu said she had been planning to travel to Taipei in early December to attend Ai’s art exhibition
    aptly called “Ai Weiwei Absent.” 

    The show, which began last month, features 21 works from 1983 to the present. It includes a new installation named “Forever Bicycles” – a 30-foot-high arrangement  of more than 1,000 bicycles that gives the illusion of a moving abstract which art critics say symbolizes China’ social changes.
      
    Last Friday, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou visited the show and called on China to respect human rights and Ai’s freedom of expression, underscoring a major issue of contention with mainland China.

    “I think they wanted to prevent me from going to Taipei,” Lu said, adding that authorities might have learned of her plans by monitoring her phone calls.

    “It was not just for the art show, I really wanted to visit Taipei because I have not seen Taiwan before,” she said, lamenting the cancellation of the trip.

    Widening punishment?
    Lu’s temporary detention comes about a week after police also began investigating Ai’s assistant for allegedly spreading pornography online, and some two weeks after Ai deposited $1.4 million with the tax authorities, which were raised from supporters’ donations, to comply with a legal procedure that would enable him to challenge the tax evasion charges.

    And on the day she was taken away for questioning, police conducted a probe of the law firm that is representing Ai.

    “Two policemen of Fengtai district came to our office yesterday  while I was away and photocopied this year’s accounts, saying they wanted our help in dealing with some cases,” Pu Zhiqiang, Ai’s lawyer,  told NBC News. Pu has previously told the foreign media that he believes the tax evasion case against his client was “politically motivated.”

    Asked whether the police raid was related to Ai, he said: “Nobody has said anything.” He added: “To worry is useless, and I am not worried.”  

    Liu Xiaoyuan, another lawyer for Ai, told NBC News that he suspects “punishment” for his inability to renew the license for his law office, which has been pending “for exactly five months tomorrow.”

    Unable to practice in Beijing, he has temporarily returned to his home province of Jiangxi.

    “The authorities concerned have warned me not to talk to the media about Ai’s case but I didn’t stop talking, so I think all this is punishment,” he said in a telephone interview.

    Meanwhile, repeated attempts to elicit comments from the police department involved in Lu’s case did not produce any response.

    More on Ai Weiwei:
    Chinese artist and activist answers readers' questions

  • China may play crucial negotiator role in Libya

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING - Much has been said of the Obama administration's vow to pursue "smart power" diplomacy in global affairs, but when it comes to the Libyan crisis, China appears to be showing the way on how to exert influence while protecting its own interests at minimal cost.

    A top leader of Libya's opposition forces has begun a two-day trip to Beijing following a visit by Libya's foreign minister, making China the only great power so far that both warring parties in the nation's civil war have been willing to visit. This gives China a potentially central role in brokering any possible political negotiation. And with most observers and scholars - including those in China -predicting that the beleaguered Gadhafi regime may not last much longer, China's hosting of Mahmoud Jibril, the diplomatic chief of Libya's National Transitional Council, may be seen as part of China's positioning in a post-Gadhafi Libya. Iraq and Afghanistan show that China is adept at reaping benefits with minimum sacrifices, as msnbc.com reported with regards to one large copper mine in eastern Afghanistan.  

    But a top Chinese expert has dismissed as baseless any suspicion of Chinese ulterior motives in a post-Gadhafi Libya. In an interview with NBC News, the expert He Wenping has acknowledged that China has adopted "a more assertive approach ... to promote diplomatic dialogue" between the warring parties in Libya. "We hope to contribute to conflict resolution. If we can talk to both sides, why not? Building a bridge between the two sides is a constructive thing," said Dr. He, who is the top African Studies specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank. She described three potential areas of interest during Jibril's talks with Chinese officials, namely "how to guarantee the safety of Chinese investments, how to push for ceasefire and political solution, and how China can assist with the humanitarian crisis." 

    Oil interests?
    "Is there any message they want to us to convey to the Gadhafi regime, can China serve as a bridge for bringing the two together so they can find a solution to the impasse?" she asked. She denied that China has any vested interests in Libya's oil industry, saying that most of China's investments and workers were in construction, infrastructure and transport and "actually, most of Libya's oil industry has been taken away by Western oil companies."

    "I don't agree with reports that in the case of Afghanistan or Iraq, China did not sacrifice any single soldier's life but ended up as the winner in economic deals," she said.  "In both countries, the decisions taken by the local government were based on the competitive advantages of companies and the bidding was an open process." 

    For some Chinese foreign policy scholars, the Libyan crisis and China's response mark a departure from China's traditional approach of laying low. "In China，there's a debate between those who want China to continue lying low in world affairs, and those who want China to assume a greater, more assertive role in the world and I belong to the latter school," international affairs expert Yan Xuetong told NBC News. In his recently published book Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power, Professor Yan, dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, argued that China can play a greater political role in the world based on moral norms, not on sheer military or economic power.  Citing China's support for sanctions against the Gadhafi regime and decisions to mobilize warships and military aircraft in a high-profile rescue operations that improved China's international image, Yan said that "China's policy on Libya is clearly a break from the principle of keeping a low profile."

    Others take a different standpoint.

    "I don't think I belong to any of the two schools. There may be schools in between, or maybe I belong to the case-by-case school," said Dr. He Wenping. "Whether it is appropriate for China to take action or remain quiet really depends on the case at hand. If it involves China's important interests or China has a lot of leverage, then China can take responsible action, but in other cases it may not be good for China's image to become too assertive," she said. In Libya and the Middle East, there doesn't seem to be a debate on the important Chinese stakes involved: Even if Libya only supplies 3 percent of China's imported oil, China has some US$18.8 billion contracted projects in Libya and nearly half of China's oil imports come from North Africa and the Middle East. 

    LisAurel Winfree contributed research to this report.

  • Ai arrest shows escalating crackdown

    Peter Macdiarmid / Getty Images

    Chinese Artist Ai Weiwei holds some seeds from his 'Sunflower Seeds' exhibit at The Tate Modern in London on Oct.11, 2010.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – The reported detention of one of China's most high-profile artists and dissidents, Ai Weiwei, is fueling speculation that China's ongoing crackdown to prevent call for protests similar to the ones seen in the Middle East and North Africa is reaching a new, more aggressive, phase.

    Ai's wife and artist Lu Qing told NBC News in a phone interview that more than 24 hours after police detained her husband at Beijing’s airport she has not received any official notification of his status or whereabouts.

    “I am certainly concerned because there is no news about him,” she said.

    Ai’s arrest comes in the midst of what has been China’s “most severe” crackdown in a decade over the last few weeks, according to Sophie Richardson, Asia advocacy director at Human Rights Watch.

    At least 25 lawyers, activists and bloggers have been detained, arrested or have “disappeared” since mid-February, including six of China's most prominent human rights lawyers, according to Richardson. In addition, between 100 and 200 other people have been subjected to various forms of house arrest and control.

    The latest development shows “a turning point in the crackdown because the arrest of someone of the stature of Ai could only have been carried out with approval of a top leader,” Human Rights Watch spokesman in Hong Kong Nicholas Bequelin told NBC News. He added that the message of the arrest is “clearly designed to intimidate.”

    Ai, a 53-year-old artist and architectural designer is internationally renowned. He was a consultant on the iconic Bird’s Nest stadium at the Beijing Olympics and recently had an exhibit at the Tate Modern gallery in London. The son of one China’s most famous modern poets, he has also been a famously outspoken critic of the Communist government. 

    Bequelin pointed to the increasing power of China's security apparatus since the 2008 Olympic Games, which he says has “seized on the pretext of the Jasmine revolution” to launch a comprehensive crackdown. “The silence of the West has directly contributed to the hardline turn; the reformers within the system are undermined by the lack of pressure,” he added.

    In the meantime, people close to Ai are increasingly worried about his situation. His assistant Jennifer Ng recounted to NBC News the airport incident on Sunday when he was blocked from boarding a flight to Hong Kong. She described the police behavior as “civil” when they told her that Ai had “other business” and could not take the flight.

    Ng Han Guan / AP

    A Chinese police officer, right, and a security guard stand guard near Ai Weiwei's studio in Beijing on Sunday.

    “We are just concerned about the situation of Ai Weiwei,” said another assistant, Liu Yanping, He confirmed that eight staff personnel from Ai’s Beijing studio who had been summoned by the police have since been released.

    But Ai’s lawyer was not optimistic about when they would hear about his whereabouts.

    “It may take up to 48 hours before any official notification is received about Ai Weiwei’s status,” said lawyer Liu Xiaoyuan, who has been rendering legal services to the artist since 2008.

    Asked whether the reported detention and disappearance of human rights lawyers is cause for personal concern, he told NBC News that the “law is the law.”

    “I am not concerned because the law allows for lawyers to be allowed to represent clients, be they murderers or political dissenters,” he said.

  • Will Beijing payback the Philippines?

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – When the Philippines took the much-criticized decision to boycott the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony honoring a top Chinese dissident last December, the official rationale was that it was meant to help save the lives of Filipinos facing the death penalty in China over drug-trafficking crimes.

    But nevertheless, China’s Supreme Court still ruled for the execution next week of three convicted Filipino drug couriers – setting off a high-stakes diplomatic game to see if Beijing will show mercy and return Manila’s political favor in kind.

    “It is time for them to demonstrate their pronounced statements of improved or closer bilateral ties. This will be a test,” declared Philippine President Benigno Aquino III, who faces mounting domestic pressure over the controversy.

    “No one is privileged to transcend the law,” declared the Chinese embassy in Manila, calling the death sentence “the final verdict by the Chinese judicial authorities.”

    ‘Scourge of drugs’
    China maintains a draconian drug control policy, to fight what officials would describe as the “scourge that has wrought havoc to the Chinese nation in history,” alluding to the Opium Wars of the past.

    China carried out the execution of a British national convicted of smuggling 4,000 grams of heroin in Dec. 2009, despite then British Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s own plea for clemency.

    Under China’s law, trafficking more than 50 grams of heroin is punishable by death.

    The three Filipino death-row inmates, two female and one male, were separately convicted of smuggling between 4,000 to more than 6,000 grams of heroin into China. They reportedly served as “mules” for international drug-smuggling syndicates.

    “Drugs are a worldwide problem and we have to respect their (China’s) sovereignty,” Aquino told the Philippine media.
    But he appealed for “reciprocity” and a stay of execution, citing that the Philippines has not executed Chinese nationals found guilty of similar offenses since the country has abolished capital punishment.

    “We are not asking for exoneration,” added a Philippine foreign affairs official. Manila is hoping for a reprieve or commutation to life imprisonment.

    Judicial vs. strategic interests?
    Government officials in Manila do not disagree that drug offenses need to be severely punished, but they are looking at their plea for clemency through the lens of their strategic alliance with China.

    “We do not question the decision of the Chinese courts in meting [out] the death penalty to the accused,” said Philippine Vice President Jejomar Binay, but he is still planning on traveling to Beijing Friday to plead Manila's case on humanitarian grounds.

    “There is no legal remedy,” a Philippine senator acknowledged, adding that this should serve as a lesson to avoid involvement in the illegal drug trade.

    But Aquino said he will continue “last-ditch” diplomatic efforts to avoid the death penalty, calling his request “very, very reasonable.” He added, “And we have improved bilateral ties with China. This will be a test.”

    Last December, the Chinese government expressed “appreciation” for Manila’s Nobel Peace Prize boycott, which triggered “shock and disappointment” among human rights groups. 

    As a further gesture in China’s favor, Manila recently extradited 14 Taiwanese accused of criminal fraud to Beijing, not to Taipei, infuriating the Taiwanese government and putting the interests of some 80,000 Filipinos working in Taiwan at risk.

    Manila has “jumped the gun” on the issue of China-Taiwan unification, according to one commentator. 

    Aquino has requested “a phone conversation” with Chinese President Hu Jintao, but so far no response.

    It remains to be seen how the executions, if carried out, will impact public opinion and the ties between China and the neighboring strategic archipelago.

  • Year of the Rabbit predictions for Kate & Wills

    GRACE LIANG / Reuters

    A child dressed in a traditional Chinese costume stands in front of lanterns at a temple fair to celebrate the Lunar New Year in Beijing Thursday.

    By Eric Baculinao

    BEIJING – As the Year of the Rabbit hops in, there could be new forces at work for Britain’s royal wedding.
     
    For China’s top fortune teller, Chen Shuaifu, April 29 isn’t exactly an auspicious day for the gathering of the rabbit, the rooster and the dog. But if the “right steps” are taken, the royal wedding day could still be a good beginning for Kate Middleton and Prince William.
     
    “Prince William should avoid wearing red, while Kate must wear white, gold and black,” said Chen.
     
    While it’s tempting to dismiss the words of Chen, a soft-spoken former defense reporter and editor, he is the chairman of the China National Feng-shui Association, which has some 38,000 members across China.
     
    Feng-shui, which stands for wind and water, is the ancient art that studies the forces and elements of nature to divine the future, attract good fortune and deter bad luck. It has survived in China for more than 1,000 years and has seen a revival in recent years.
     
    “I am a descendant of Chen Tuan, the greatest feng-shui master of the Song Dynasty,” Chen said during a recent interview with NBC News, referring to a philosopher who lived in the 10th century.  
     
    Reconciling the zodiacs
    While both Kate and William were born in 1982 in the Western calendar, the Chinese lunar calendar says Kate was born in the Year of the Rooster, while Prince William was born in the Year of the Dog.
     
    Their zodiacs are “quite compatible,” according to Chen. “But they will be married in the Year of the Rabbit, which is good for people born in the Year of the Dog, but bad for people in the Year of the Rooster,” he warned.
     
    “Kate was born on a freezing winter day, so she must be an extreme and stubborn lady,” said Chen.

    Zhu Tong / NBC News

    Chen Shuaifu at work in Beijing.

    “Prince William was born in the fiery month of June, so he also has an extreme temperament, with a quick reflex and is excellent in academic studies.”
     
    “To reconcile their horoscopes, Prince Williams must not wear red clothes and should often go swimming, while Kate must wear white, gold and black,” he firmly suggested.
     
    “And golden utensils must be used, because gold can contain the water (necessary for good feng-shui). Water was born from gold, and black also belongs to water,” he added. 
     
    ‘Soak the ring in wine’
    Chinese feng-shui believes that human fate can be altered through proper actions. “If I predict that someone driving north will encounter a disaster, I will tell him to head south instead,” Chen explained.
     
    One case in point is the royal engagement ring that belonged to Princess Diana. “She led a miserable life, the unlucky energy in the ring will be too much, and the living should not wear the ring worn by the dead,” he said.
     
    “But there are two solutions,” Chen suggested. “One is to soak the ring in wine for six or seven hours, and another is to soak it in salt, to cleanse away the tragedies.”

    Chen admitted that he could only provide limited guidance and that a deeper understanding of the forces that could affect the royal wedding and the married life of Prince William and Kate would require “a quiet environment” and “three or four hours” of work in their presence.
     
    Besides, after the wedding, “70 percent” of the couple’s fate will be decided by Prince William, according to Chen. “As a prince, he will have important influence on world affairs. So I suggest he contribute a lot more to society and have a positive attitude, to repel bad luck and any threat to their marriage.”
     
    Is Feng-shui credible?
    Chen is aware of the skepticism held by many toward feng-shui. “I can only say one sentence: Everything will depend on human efforts and a positive attitude can change everything.”
     
    He pointed out that more and more people are seeking out the counsel of feng-shui masters, including government and corporate officials. He ticked off a few examples of his own.

    “I have been invited by Foxconn to help deal with the frequency of workers’ suicide deaths in their factories in south China ... I determined the wedding day for famous actor Tang Zhenye for his seventh marriage … And later, he had twin daughters.”

    He also suggested that feng-shui is at work all the time, in ways many might miss.
     
    “In Beijing, there is the Bird’s Nest in the Olympic park, the Bird’s Egg for the National Grand Theater, the Bird’s Beak of the Millennium Altar, the Bird’s Legs of the new CCTV Tower, and the Bird’s Wings of the Beijing Capital Airport,” he said, suggesting a grand feng-shui design of a bird to attract good fortune.

    The bird can fly and is an apt symbol for rising Beijing, rising China, he explained.

    "Who designed it all? I can't tell you, it's state secret," he said.

    Zhu Tong contributed to this report.   

    For all the latest on the royal wedding, click on the Windsor Knot, msnbc.com's blog dedicated to the countdown to the big day.

  • Is China's 'Mr. Ferrari' slowing down at 60?

    By Eric Baculinao

    To some Beijing-based observers who have followed his legendary “rags-to-riches” story, Li Xiaohua was “Mr. Ferrari.”  Li burst into the public eye in 1992 as the first mainland Chinese to own an iconic luxury sports car.

    He broke old communist-era taboos by proudly showing off his wealth, shattered the stereotyped image of the impoverished Chinese, and foretold the rise of the country as a serious consumer of luxury.

    Eric Baculinao/NBC News File

    China's first Ferrari and Li on party screen display.

    The colorful ceremony in an ancient park to turn the ignition key of a flaming red 348TS worth $138,880, was a symbolic event.  It captured the spirit of a roaring new era ushered in by reformist leader Deng Xiaoping, who famously declared “to get rich is glorious.”

    Four years later, Li Xiaohua aimed even higher – literally -- by donating to astronomy research.  In another high-profile event, a minor planet discovered by a Chinese observatory was officially named after him.

    But as he recently celebrated his 60th birthday, the man -- who has immortalized his name both on earth and in the heavens -- was exhibiting the signs and circumstances of slowing down.

    To more than 400 party guests, he bowed and expressed his thanks, and introduced his 25-year-old daughter Li Xiang, who has come home after years of education in England and the United States.

    “I hope she can find a good husband, who can be an ordinary man, really just a simple man,” he said to laughter and applause.

    A 'profiteer' or a pioneer?
    Li Xiaohua represented the rough-and-tumble days of China’s capitalist experiment.  He was a foot soldier of Deng’s revolution, taking all its risks and rewards.

    Born to a poor family of six that shared windowless 75-square-foot housing in old Beijing, the teenager Li -- like the millions of urban youth sent to the farms by Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution -- ventured to the wilderness of China’s northeast frontier region, where he labored as a tractor driver.

    After eight years, he returned to Beijing, virtually penniless and jobless.  It was 1977, the eve of Deng’s reform era.

    Li later became a boiler worker.  And then a cook, while also buying and selling watches on the side.  For playing too early in the capitalist game, he was reportedly detained for a period of time, on charges of “profiteering.”

    Li Xiaohua (centre), daughter and guest.

    “I was busy cooking when they came to take me away.  It was really embarrassing,” he was quoted in one interview.

    American-made soda machine
    Li was released from detention in the early 80s, as the winds of Deng’s capitalist-style reform began blowing in force.  In southern China, he came across an American-made iced-drink dispenser that would change his life forever.

    With borrowed money, he bought the drink dispenser for $800 and took it to a seaside resort in North China.  The business of selling iced-drinks thrived in the hot summer and provided Li with the capital for a bigger business, a video movie parlor.

    By 1985, he had made his initial fortune and went to study in Japan, where he hit another “pot of gold.”  He became the exclusive distributor for a Chinese-invented hair growth lotion that proved a big hit among the Japanese.

    And when Hong Kong’s real estate slumped after Britain agreed to return the capitalist colony to communist China, triggering widespread fear and initial exodus, Li poured all the millions he had amassed into distressed properties.

    “I had nothing left, literally nothing, I only ate instant noodles,” he once told NBC News.

    The enormous investment returns from Hong Kong’s recovery were then plowed into even bigger lucrative infrastructure plays in Southeast Asia, and the rest was history.

    By 1992 when he bought his Ferrari, the riches that began with the humble drink dispenser, had transformed Li into one of the wealthiest in China.

    By 1997, his estimated worth was $300 million, compared with the $20 million owned by the lowly inventor of the magic hair grower.

    Li Xiaohua and his daughter at the party.

    Rise and fall of tycoons
    In 1999, Li was still one of the two or three richest Chinese, but his ranking would decline quite rapidly.

    He was listed as #23 in 2003, but by 2006 he was listed as #281.  By last year, he was totally excluded from the Rich List prepared by Hurun Report, which tracks the ranking of China’s wealthiest individuals.

    “We don’t see much information in the public domain about Li Xiaohua’s assets, and as a result, it’s difficult to quantify his wealth,” Rupert Hoogewerf, publisher of Hurun Report, told NBC News. Hoogewerf, who attended Li’s birthday as a long-time friend, described a man “who is still in business and still enjoys business.”

    “But I have the impression that he also wants to enjoy life more.  He has all the houses and all the cars in the world that he wants, so what else would he want?” Hoogewerf said.

    Ferrari to charity

    At the birthday party, hundreds of guests applauded a video presentation that featured Li’s philanthropic work.  He was once honorary president of China Charity Federation, and he equipped and built “Xiaohua Schools” around the country.

    “People should be caring, and should know how to love others and help others,” he was quoted as saying.

    No longer a novelty, his storied Ferrari has been donated to charity.

    In 1997 there were 200 Ferrari owners in China.  Today, they number 999.  China has become the fastest growing and potentially biggest luxury car market in the world.

    To many observers, the provocative image of a flamboyant Li Xiaohua with his red Ferrari will remain as one enduring symbol of China’s historic turning point.

    And as he recedes from the front row of billionaires, he will always be remembered as the most visible champion of China’s first generation of risk-takers from the ranks of the rusticated youths, who had nothing to lose as they boldly seized chances and helped shake and reshape China into what it is today.

    Researcher He Xin contributed to this report.

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