E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSIn a statement released tonight over Tuesday’s skirmish between North and South Korea, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said, “China pays great attention to the event. We feel grieved and regretful about the casualties and property losses, and feel worried about its development.”
A muted response, especially in stark contrast to Washington’s condemnation, but analysts here say Beijing’s concerns should not be underestimated.
Maintaining peace and stability in the region – as clichéd or obvious as it might sound – is paramount to the Chinese central government.
“The two pillars which supported China’s political and economic transformation of the three decades over the past has been maintaining stability at home and keeping peace in the world,” said Victor Gao, an international relations expert based in Beijing. “Therefore China has a deep abhorrence to any destabilizing act by any country in this part of the world.”
And news that the U.S. and South Korea will hold another round of joint military and naval exercises is especially alarming for Beijing, according to Chinese political analysts. “The more such exercises there are, the more probably you will create tensions and maybe one side like North Korea will overreact,” said Gao.
China can't read Pyongyang's tea leaves either
Just as Beijing’s concerns shouldn’t be underestimated, nor should its ability to rein in Pyongyang be overestimated.
As North Korea’s staunchest ally and main economic supporter, China is widely regarded as the only power able to keep its smaller neighbor in check.
“North Korea is very independent. It has its own way of doing things and it has its own perception of risks and threats, which may be very different from China’s,” said Gao.
“China can’t restrain North Korea for the same reason the U.S. can’t control Israel, for example,” argued Professor Yan Xuetong, an international security expert at Tsinghua University. “North Korea and Israel can make military decisions that are beyond the control of China or the U.S.”
The best solution as far as Beijing is concerned, according to most analysts, is to work diplomatically within the six-party framework – a solution Washington finds untenable.
Regardless, there is one area in which both China and the U.S. seem to be in agreement.
Analysts in Beijing admit that what’s happening in their northern neighbor remains a mystery to the Chinese just as it does to everyone else.
“I don’t think [North Korea] is even very transparent to China,” said Gao.
With additional reporting from Eric Baculinao.
Leave a Comment:
This all sounds to me like someone lit the fuse on a stick of dynamite and everyone sat around blaming each other. Well that guy supplied the dynamite. This guy supplied the match, but it was the other guy that actually lit the thing.
I think the thing to do is put the fuze out before the dynamite explodes, and then after that, figure out a way of preventing it from ever happening again.
But I guess y'all would rather blow each other up and go on to your great reward blaming each other.
All fabrications. North Korea is the PRC's stalking horse--always has been, always will be.
At the time that the hostilities in the 50s ended, we were fighting the Chinese army. The North Korean army had previously been destroyed. The situation now is much different. South Korea can probably defeat North Korea without US assistance. However, any war situation would result in hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths. The best plan is to continue the truce until North Korea either collapses or comes to its senses.
I like the idea but I think the reality is North Korea will not collapse as long as China supports it. It is a little more of a long shot but NK may be blackmailing China. That is support us or we export nukes to your Muslim provinces.
I thought that, I had posted this comment before, but will do so again. The U.S. is going the same way as the Roman Empire, perhaps? Spending way more every year, then we take in, For example spending $ 800 Billion and only taking in $ 200 Billion, year after year after year................ how long does one continue on such a destructive course, with China holding a lot of our debt. Then to be waging two wars, at the same time and wishing, for another one, to start / develop? this is all thanks to our own Federal Government and to American Corporate greed, for out-sourcing most of our jobs over-seas!
The U.S. has been heading down that road for a very long time, turning into a service country. So the enemy is winning by weakening us at home. Why can we not, as a nation, learn lessons, from other countries?
Nope we are toast but it may be awhile before everyone accepts that. We are so divided and polarized at home that I have no idea how to put it together again. As we continue to bow to smaller and smaller special interest groups we will devolve, for all practical purposes, into a series of small nations under one flag. Just look at California politics to see our national future.
No war unless North Korea invades South Korea or attacks Japan. Put the ego's away and use some brains instead. Work with China and Russia. Anything else is insanity.
That's kind of what I had in mind in my "dynamite" metaphor back in post number 49. Figure out a way of keeping this thing from blowing up in our faces and then take steps to prevent it from ever happening again.
Thinking ahead rather than thinking back. Whether yesterday was a tragedy or yesterday was one of the good old days, it's tomorrow we have to live through now. Let's try to figure out a way of surviving it.
Russia might help but don't count on China.
This may be off topic, but I am sure everyone noticed how the stock market took a big dip yesterday and has recovered nicely today. That happens almost everytime NK starts to bark. Would I be too much of a conspiracy theorist to suggest that maybe someone in Beijing or Pyonyang is trying to make some money? I wish I knew the day before that an attack was going to happen.
As much as China wants to state that their Pit Bull North Korea is acting independently, only a fool would believe such a line of crap. Kim and his son are appendages of China...and just like a dog that is improperly trained by it's owner to be violent and aggresive, Kim and his son must be euthanized before they do any more damage. Enough said!
Like China is really sincere! China does not want a united, democratic country on its borders period. Chin, as usual, is playing the world.
As if China could not restrain North Korea. Give me a break. They restrained Tibet, and the world did nothing. They can easily restrain NK. Without China's blessing and support, these guys would still be fighting with rocks and clubs. China knows where all their stuff is and how to cripple them as a country (heck they know that about us, and we are not right across a border). Kim Jong Ill is not a rabid dog like the media portrays, he is Chinas little whelp, and can easily be restrained or replaced in 5 minutes tops.
I don't think 'restrained' is the right work to use when describing what China did to Tibet. Invaded, destroyed, demolished, occupied, exterminated the culture....those words far better describe the horror that is China in Tibet.
Tibetans were liberated from serfdom after Tibet was re-united with China. Since liberation, the region has made tremendous economic progress, Tibetan culture and language are preserved. But above all Tibetans, as an ethnic minority in china, enjoys equal or better rights than the majority Han Chinese.
Does anyone know that Da Lai La Ma was a slavemaster before Tibet was liberated? Surely Da Lai La Ma has his followers, but his former slaves and their free offspring are not appreciate and wellcome him. And as a matter of fact, Tibetan culture and language are not only protected and preserved under law, all 56 ethnic minorities in China enjoy better rights and benefits than the majority Han Chinese.
NK is a headache to both Chinese government and Chinese people. NK's pride is no less than any other counties on the planet. NK is a puppet of China? China would love to make NK a puppet. Why not ask NK and find out? Assumtion is not truth. Rightful judgement and better decisions are made upon common sense, not illusion.
Henrich and neither, are you two products of the Chinese education system? Have you been to Tibet? The Tibetians are better off under the Han.....are you serious? I suppose the Cultural Revolution was a good thing....needed to clean out those reactionaries.
Think you guys need to get back to your little red book.
We have leverage here--and it's not military. Whatever the costs/consequences to us, multiply that by several factors for the Chinese. If you owe a man a thousand dollars, you're a debtor; if you owe him several million, you're a partner (just ask Donald Trump!). We can afford to be aloof for once (how's that for irony)... Let the Chinese show that they can act like grown-ups. Turning up the heat (albeit passive aggresively) is not such a bad strategy for an over-extended nation.
Funny, the talk of a trade/monetary war with China has all but vanished.
Coincidence?
Funny how the trade/monetary war with China is no longer making headines.
Coincidence?
We created the monster that China has become by allowing our corporations to turn them into a manufacturing center for the world. We can bring China to heel by moving business out of China to some "safe" counties in South America and Africa. Spread it around so no one country every becomes this economically strong again.
Yes... But the monster must feed. We really needn't do anything. China's strength is tied to ours--they're "pot committed" at this point.
We have leverage here and it's not military. Whatever the consequences as far as we (the US) are concerned, you need to multiply that by several factors when it comes to assessing how devestating an all-out conflict would be to the Chinese. Think: If you owe a man a thousand dollars, you're a debtor; if you owe him several million, you're a partner (just ask Trump). Regardless of the irony, we can afford to be more than a bit aloof here. Let China be the grown-up for once. We, quite literally I'm afraid, have nothing to lose...
i would put money that if we did attack NK, the majority of their army would run across the border waving to have us take them in. NK has nothing for anyone, and they all know that life is better outside its borders. it would be like the first iraqi war, when we walked in and the iraqi soldiers hugged our troops and thanked us for coming. there will be the hardened soldiers, but they would not last long with limited supplies. we really need to carpet bomb the capital city, just to send a message. our air superiority would take over immediately, as they have no fuel supplies, and their aircraft are from the '60's more than likely. plus, who cares what china thinks, they just do not want the refugees!
wheather or not NK would attack SK is really the first question. No one has an answer, but history has shown that NK is capable of anything. No one expected NK to attack SK in 1950. The same group still holds power. We must keep in mind that Nk has displayed many times that the will do anything, even start a war. What will China do or not do is the second question. Again go back to the Korean War, China made it clear to the U.S. and the UN that they would not tolerate U.S. troops on their border, when we pushed to the Yalu River they kept their word and attacked U.S and UN troops. China has always considered NK the buffer to protect their "soft underbelly" a term used by the U.S. Military. Again if there is an invasion of NK, I would assume that China would take the same stance. "Nuke them", is out of the question, the fall out alone would kill millions, and with China right next door, I don't see them standing by and doing nothing. Next we have appx 30,000 U.S. troops in SK, with appx 15,000 at the DMZ, if the nut case in NK attacks SK there are going to be a lot of American families receiving the dreaded "visit" from a military chaplin.
So what we have is a no win situation. attack or not to attack. Stand firm and try to keep NK contained. None are these are very good options. Hopefully we will weigh all options and not jump in without thinking of the consquences.
True... But with time, our options become even less palatable. Something has to give eventually. We don't share a border with that abortion; let KJ's foster parents do the dirty work. The reality is, the Chinese have the most to lose...
China should no longer fear an attack via it's "soft underbelly".The world has drastically changed since the 40s and 50s and there are no countries out there that desire to attack China. In fact, reunifying Korea under a free and democratic society can only help strengthen China. As it stands right now Nk is a dead weight around China's ankle. Removing it will free up China to trade, etc.. and good will with it's neighbors in the region. The world and China have dramatically changed since the Korean war and it's high time that China recognizes that change and rids itself of the burden of NK, which is still stuck in the 1950s dictator mind set. How about it China, are you ready to take some real positive steps to achieving that peace and stability you desire for the region? If so, jettison Kim and his cohorts.You and the rest of the world will be glad if you do!
I would say the SK has the most to lose, but China does have a great deal to lose. Question remains, what will the Chinese do. They will be pulled from different directions, both in amilitary sense and in a trade/money sense. They have proven that their concern is for China first. What that means in todays context is up for debate. You are correct that "something has to give"...Hopefully it's the NK giving up trying to start a war.
Kevin, China should do many things, but will they? That's the 64 million dollar question.
I agree, but I'm putting it out there because these are the words they need to hear and I'm not so sure our government is getting that across.
I would like to think the Chinese are pragmatic enough to do the right things. They are, however, slow to drop allies or to enact embargoes or other sanctions to bring them back in line. I think the best we are going to see is a verbal/written condemnation and then they will continue to support NK as before.
Kevin, no problem with that. The gov't has many times proven that they have a "tin ear'....
Hi Michael, unfortunely your probably correct in that assumption. So where does that leave us in the situation. I think probably ''hold the bag''.....nto something that I'm comfortable with.
Michael, when I was in the service So. Korea was considered a "hardship zone'', troops were not allowed to bring their familes there. Is that still hold true?
Afternoon Kavika, you are right about the "tin ear", but nicer than I would be. All of our politicians have a lead head when it comes to foreign policy; they either try the bully tactic or the nervous nelly method. As bad as Nixon was in most things; he and JFK were probably the best at foreign policy.
Actually this could leave China holding the bag if we play it right. We could devalue our dollar because of the threat posed, pay them back pennies on the dollar and say screw you.
Korea is still a hardship tour, but is changing starting next spring.
While China may have limited control over Kim/NK, it certainly can make and take a very strong position against Kim's acts of aggression and his refusal to adhere to international law on the production and proliferation of nuclear weapons. Not to mention the blaring human rights abuses against NKs own citizens (albeit, China's record on that score is not very good). Making it clear to Kim and his cohorts that they can not expect backing from China and that they will have to go it alone in the event of further hostilities/war, may cause NK to reassess it's actions. And will also assure the international community that China will not come to Kim's aid in the event military action is needed to reign him in. China's milquetoast response to the recent events only serves to embolden Kim and the gang and does nothing to reign him in. Nor is it reassuring to the international community.Come on China, while you many not control Kim, it's in your best interest to take every step possible (including strong public condemnation) to reign in Kim and his buddies. As it stands right now it does not look like you are willing to do so. How does that foster peace and stability in the region?
Having spent a few years in S. Korea working for Samsung, I can tell you the S. Korean's do not fear the from a military standpoint. China and S. Korea have very close economic ties (they need each other's technology) and China would not stand by and allow N. Korea to hurt one of their closest trading partners. Having said that I still would not be surprised if China were using this to study the response from the USA. China wants Taiwan back and the only thing stopping them is going to war with the USA. If they think we're getting weak militarily, look for China to begin to place pressure on Taiwan.
Interesting idea that they are testing the Obama admin. Maybe they should send two aircraft carrier groups and some extra guided missile cruisers.
I wonder if a few cruise missiles at military bases would start a war or back off NK?
this would have been the perfect time to wipe out north korea's nuclear facilities. what was the military command thinking??? strike back quickly with a decisive military strike to cripple the enemy. by not acting, you've invited another attack at the enemy's choice of timing. this is a rough nation that believes the U.S. is a paper tiger with cowards commanding their military.
Every time you go to walmart half the money you spend goes to china and then to north korea think about that for a second
I think some of you are missing the point of this in an amazing way. North Korea would not be a problem had it not been for the interference by China back during the Korean War. We chased them straight into China. China then attacked us enmasse. We then attacked in the opposite direction as apparently we weren't willing to take on China.
This is really between the US and China. North Korea would be squashed like a bug by now. We just don't want China doing the Chosin Reservoir thing again to us. The only reason NK has the mouth is because China has it's back and both of them know it. Keep an eye on this, if this escalates and SK gains any ground on NK, watch China come rolling in. This is purely Geopolitics.
Let them... China needs an Afghanistan to keep them occupied. And at the end of the day, they have proven to be rather stable border mates. For all their bluster, they lack the adventurist spirit.
Our power lies in recognizing that it is their problem. Send the ships. Stir the pot. They hold twice their GDP in US Treasuries... If they want to turn their accumulated wealth into toilet paper, so be it...
Why don't you libs just bury your heads in the sand and pretend nothing is happening. All you do is confuse the issues anyway. These people just want everything you have, Freedom, religion, etc.. And they will kill you to get it, or worse, enslave you.
"North Korea is very independent. It has its own way of doing things and it has its own perception of risks and threats, which may be very different from China’s,” said Gao.
Well, duh! That's basically what we've been saying about North Korea for most of my life. That does not excuse them from being held accountable for their actions. When a rogue nation just arbitrarily decides to shell its neighbors, I for one believe there needs to be an armed response. If not, then at least the West needs to really apply the strong arm to China to yank the leash on their little pet. I realize sanctions have been partically effective with North Korea, but if China is going to ameliorate our efforts by propping up the current regime, then North Korea won't ever change. Everyone knows they don't mind starving their people as long as they can maintain their military.
Still, this "incident" deserves more than just a slap on the wrist for the North's leadership. If that means an escalation or even a war, then maybe it's time. Avoiding wars is just as bad, sometimes, as ignoring a problem that won't go away otherwise.
Well, when an individual is hurting, they will often react in an effort to gain the attention of others. And as we all know, North Korea is quite troubled. And things there will probably worsen over time. Therefore, China should do all that it can to convince the North to sit down with the US, Russia, South Korean and other neighbors, in effort to create an unprecedented peace and economic alliance. In exchnage, the North would have to give up their nuclear program and reach an agreement on those disputed areas.
I think the probability of wider conflict between Koreas (North and South) can still be stop if US and China help each other to stop the conflict between South and North Korea before it spread.
Note to China: "Gone Fishing" Debtors have less than nothing to lose... Step up and be responsible for the mess you've created. We've got our hands full with our own.